Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday, April 19 | Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Ben Ali Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $350,000 | Four Year Olds and Upward | One Mile and Three Sixteenths

Non-Contenders:

Duke of Love (6) opens at 5 to 2 odds and I don’t know why, but that’s fine because it means other horses, which have higher probability of winning, offer value. Duke of Love is vulnerable on many levels, mostly because he had been away from the races for 18 months until returning on March 1 in an allowance race where he finished an unimpressive fifth with a comment “failed to menace” which does not suggest he can win. Even his best effort, one before the layoff back in August 2023, winning the Grade 3 West Virginia Governor’s Stakes, isn’t good enough to win here if repeated.

The second lowest odds on the morning line is Uno Mas Bourbon (7), who starts at 7 to 2. HUH? He’s two for 12 in his career, winning a maiden race last May then winning the Super Derby in September. He finished third in the fall equivalent of this race, the Fayette Stakes, last October, at 15 to 1, then fourth in the Clark Stakes in November at 46 to 1. Returning off a three-month layoff in February, he finished third in an allowance race, not exactly the kind of effort to suggest he can win a stakes race.

Then there’s Time for Trouble (4), at 4 to 1 on the morning line, whose last win came 15 months ago in January 2023, in an allowance race. He was beaten 13 lengths last time out and finished fifth in his other start this year and is another with a much lower probability to win than his odds suggest.

I might as well mention the other two non-contenders. Tennessee Lamb (3) just won a first level allowance race at one mile around one turn and just broke his maiden two before that so appears overmatched, and Piroli (5) has won just one of his last six races going back to January of last year and although that was a Keeneland six months ago, his last four races when he goes off Lasix as he’s doing here have been pretty poor efforts as he finished ninth, fourth, eighth and seventh.

Top Contenders:

That leaves us with San Siro (1) and Prince of Power (2). San Siro won last September at one mile and one-quarter, so this mile and three-sixteenths trip is no issue. He won off a two-month layoff on February 1, easily by four lengths, then finished a poor fourth last out in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic four weeks ago. He has come back to put in a very strong work at Keeneland since then and is in the hands of red-hot Brendan Walsh. Jockey Morales has been aboard for all three of the horse’s wins, and from the rail he figures to get a great stalking trip behind likely early leader Prince of Peace (2) before unleashing a strong late rally good enough to win based on the 104 Equibase Speed Figure he earned on February 1 and the fact that he’s a four year old who probably has not yet run the best race of his career.

Prince of Peace (2) opens at 15 to 1 and I get it, based on his 2-3-2 record in 14 dirt or all-weather races. However, we only need to look at his six races since moving to the Esquivel barn last November. He won his first start for the trainer, then finished second and two later won at a mile and one-quarter (like San Siro). He led from the start and settled for third in his first ever stakes try after that, on February 15. He then ran in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland on April 8, never saw the lead and faded from fourth to seventh. That was a FANTASTIC prep for stretching out to two-turns today and based on the face he led from the start and in all three races prior to that, it is very likely jockey Corrales will put him on the lead from the start. If there is no early pressure, Prince of Power could get into a steady stride and although San Siro should be able to run him down, there is a possibility he can hang on, or at the least complete a very profitable exacta.

Bets:  

Win:

San Siro (1) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Prince of Power (2) to win, or win and place, at 4 to 1 or more

Exactas: Box San Siro (1) and Prince of Power (2).  

Race 11 at Oaklawn | Saturday, April 19 | Post Time 7:10 PM Eastern

Oaklawn Handicap – Grade 2 | Purse $1.25 Million | Four Year Olds and Upward | One Mile and One Eighth

 

Win Contenders:

Alexander Helios (5) has run the best two races of his career in his two most recent starts, since turning five on January 1. He was a decent three-year-old when easily winning a mile and one-eighth race in November 2023, winning right back in January 2024, then winning nicely at Oaklawn last April. He was off from May through January and has won both starts since, with a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure on January 18 before a graded stakes quality 115 figure winning the Razorback Handicap on February 23 here at Oaklawn, the prep for this race. By the way, when second last May before the layoff he also ran huge, when second to Hit Show, recent winner of the Dubai World Cup, who would be the odds-on favorite if running in this race. In his last two wins, Alexander Helios stalked in second for the first three quarters of a mile then took over, last out battling gamely head-and-head down the stretch and prevailing by a head. Considering the improvement shown in his last two races, the fact he’s won at Oaklawn (twice), won at the distance, and can stalk whoever is in front from the start, his 4 to 1 starting odds may prove to be a gift.

Skippylongstocking (4) won last year’s Oaklawn Handicap with a 116 figure, off a win in the Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a 104 figure. This year he won the Challenger Stakes with a 108 figure so has already run better leading to his attempt to repeat. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on to replace injured Gaffalione (like Saez gets on Alexander Helios to replace Gaffalione), and Ortiz, Jr. has a two for four record riding Skippylongstocking over the course of his career where he’s won 10 of 30 and earned $3.4 million. His half-mile workout before leaving Florida was sensational and like Alexander Helios, Skippylongstocking is trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. so it appears the trainer’s entrants have a very good combined probability to win.

There are no knocks on either First Mission (3) and Banishing (7). First Mission was beaten by Alexander Helios and Banishing, but only by a head and a neck, in the Razorback, his first start after six months off. He won the Essex Handicap at the distance last March and passed this race, then won the Alysheba Stakes on Derby week at Churchill Downs, before two poorer efforts to end the year. He can improve off his effort in the Razorback but that still may not be good enough to win. Banishing missed by a head in the Razorback then won the Oaklawn Mile, cutting back in distance. He’s only run this distance one time, and it may be too long for him, but he could easily be the horse that Alexander Helios is going to stalk from the start, and he could stick around for a piece.

Bets:  

Win:

Alexander Helios (5) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Skippylongstocking (4) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Alexander Helios (5) over Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7).  

Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7) over Alexander Helios (5).

Trifectas:

Alexander Helios (5) over Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7) over Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7).  

Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7) over Alexander Helios (5) over Skippylongstocking (4), First Mission (3) and Banishing (7).