Race 7 at Aqueduct | Saturday, March 1 | Post Time 3:47 PM Eastern

Busher Stakes | Purse $200,000 | Fillies, Three Years Old | One Mile

Analysis and top contenders:

She’s Fascinating (8) broke through with her best race by far five weeks ago, at the same one-mile trip here at Aqueduct as the Busher Stakes, crushing the field by eight lengths and earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure just one point less than the 89 figure Volleyballprincess (4) earned winning the Ruthless Stakes on February 1 over the track. She’s Fascinating started her career around two turns and on turf last October, both very tough questions to ask a horse which had never run before, and she didn’t do much running in that race when seventh of 11. She improved quite a bit next time out on November 21 when third at a mile on a sloppy track then when returning much more physically and mentally mature in January she ran very professionally as she stalked the top two in third for the first half mile before getting within a head of the lead then accelerating to be two lengths in front with an eighth of a mile to run. Jockey Jose Lezcano was aboard for the first time in victory and rides back and we an expect good improvement off that effort in her second start off the layoff and as a three-year-old. I’m not concerned about She’s Fascinating moving from maiden to stakes as most of these have just one win to their credit.

Volleyballprincess (4) also improved to a career-best effort in her third start, the same as She’s Fascinating, when winning the Ruthless Stakes on February 1 by 10 lengths. She won despite the jockey dropping the crop with three-sixteenths of a mile to run but she was in front at that point. Since the race, Volleyballprincess put in a strong workout of five furlongs in 58.6 at Parx, where she had shipped from before the Ruthless and ships from again, with jockey Ruiz in the saddle once more. She too is on a pattern for improvement.

One additional horse to use on exacta tickets, in the second position, is Liam in the Dust (1), who ships in from Kentucky and adds blinkers while bringing along excellent jockey Machado. She’s never been worse than second in three similar races around one turn including the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes, and she could rally to be part of the exacta.

Bets:

Win Bets: Considering how much it appears She’s Fascinating (8) and Volleyball Princess (4) stand out in terms of win probability versus the others, I would strongly consider betting either, or both, to win at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.

Doubles from race 7 to race 8:

Race 7: She’s Fascinating (8) and Volleyballprincess (4)

Race 8: Scorching (1), Flood Zone (7), McAfee (8)

Race 7: She’s Fascinating (8) and Volleyballprincess (4)

Race 8: Flood Zone (7), McAfee (8)

Race 8 at Aqueduct | Saturday, March 1 | Post Time 4:18 PM Eastern

Gotham Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile

Analysis:

In a race where most are either recent maiden or statebred stakes winners, no horse is a standout, but McAfee (8) is one of those that are most interesting. He debuted at six furlongs in November and beat 10 horses rather easily then when stretched out to the same one-turn mile trip as the Gotham for his second start on November 24, McAfee missed by a head but showed a lot of ability when moving up from fourth early in the stretch to be beaten a head on the wire. Rested three months, he’s likely to be much stronger physical and mentally, and it must be pointed out his breeding is exceptional as he is a half-brother to champion Thorpedo Anna.

Flood Zone (7) ships in from Florida for trainer Brad Cox after what appears to be a private purchase. That makes sense given his strong five length win second time out on January 4 following a three-quarter length defeat when second in his debut one month earlier. Coming up from Florida to ride is Reylu Gutierrez, who was aboard in both starts to date. The 98 Equibase Speed Figure he earned (compared to 90 + improvement expected for McAfee) is the second fastest figure in the race behind the 100 Sand Devil (5) earned winning a stakes race restricted to New York breds. Flood Zone should really like this one-mile trip as a son of Frosted out of a Curlin mare and appears and going to a mile around one turn off the six furlong trips of his last two races is not a concern.

Scorching (1) deserves a bit of attention because, although all three of his races have bene on all-weather or turf, he’s bred to run as well on conventional dirt as a son of Mo Town. He won easily by five lengths in his second career start in a race restricted to Ontario breds then stretched out to two turns and moving to turf last October, Scorching led late, lost by a nose in the photo, then was moved up to first when the winner was disqualified. That effort earned a 97 figure which puts him right there with the best in the field, and he too cold be more physically mature as a three-year-old than when seen last fall. He’s been working on dirt on the training track at Belmont and should be familiar with the surface.

Bets:

Win: I would consider betting McAfee (8) and Flood Zone (7) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

If Scorching (1) is higher than 4 to 1 near post time, I would not hesitate to bet him to win as well.

Exactas:

Box McAfee (8) and Flood Zone (7)

Box McAfee (8), Flood Zone (7) and Scorching (1).