Race 12 at Turfway Park | Saturday, March 22 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Jeff Ruby – Grade 3 | Purse $777,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Eighth

Top contenders:

California Burrito (3) won the local prep for this race, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, four weeks ago, for his second straight victory and third in six races. He has improved in each of his last three starts since moving to the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, from an 86 Equibase Speed Figure in December, to 87 in January, to a field high last race 98 figure in the Battaglia. Although he did lead from start to finish in his two most recent races, California Burrito did not run like a horse who needs the lead to win, as he did not slow down in the final quarter mile, and because his first win back in September was earned when rallying from sixth in the early stages. California Burrito won from the four post in an 11 horse field last time out and gets the similar three post in this 12 horse field, so with continued improvement expected gets slight preference among three horses which stick out against the rest in terms of win probability in this year’s Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Charlie’s to Blame (2) won in California in December, on turf going a mile, shipped to Florida to win another last month, went to Kentucky to train, and now shows up at Turfway, like California Burrito going for his third win in a row and second stakes win in a row. Last month Charlie’s to Blame won the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf, like California Burrito when leading from start to finish but also like that one not running like a horse that needs the lead to win. Jockey Juan Hernandez comes out from California to ride, having guided Charlie’s to Blame to victory the only time he was aboard, last December. The colt put in a very strong half-mile workout at Turfway (fourth best of 37) coming into the race and from a good inside post should be in contention from start to finish.

Baby Max (6) was sent to post as the 2 to 1 favorite in the Battaglia, compared to 3 to 1 for California Burrito, and ran well as he stalked in third, made a move to get within a head of the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, then battled gamely to come up just a half-length short at the finish. Blinkers go on to help him focus and he’s reunited with jockey Cedillo, who was up for a half-length loss in December and for victory in the Leonatus Stakes in January. This is another colt with improving to do, having gone from an 85 Equibase Speed Figure in December, to 95 in January, to 97, and so he rounds out a very strong trio of win contenders in this field.

Bets:

Win Bets:

All three win contenders – California Burrito (3), Charlie’s to Blame (2) and Baby Max (6), can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more. I would not hesitate to bet the two of the three at those odds or higher.

Exactas:

Box California Burrito (3), Charlie’s to Blame (2) and Baby Max (6)

Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, March 22 | Post Time 6:42 PM Eastern

Louisiana Derby – Grade 2 | Purse $1 Million | Three Year Olds | One Mile and Three Sixteenths

Analysis of the early pace scenario and how it might affect the outcome:

“Pace Makes the Race” is not a cliché statement, because how a race is run in the early stages, the “early pace” often has a big impact on the outcome. In this race, if all 10 run as expected, there’s likely to be an “irresistible force” versus an “immovable object” situation where the early pace is concerned. This is because John Hancock (1) draws the inside position in the gate and has led virtually from start to finish in both his races, the best of which was a win in the Sam F Davis Stakes last month with a 97 Equibase Speed Figure. However, Yinzer (4) is just as determined to lead from the start, having led for the first three-quarters of a mile two races back on January 18 (before tiring) and then leading from the start when winning on February 15, both races at Fair Grounds. Although he earned only an 89-speed figure, Yinzer’s 103 and 93 early pace figures and John Hancock’s 98 and 90 figures are comparable and suggest both with go for the lead from the start at any cost.  Furthermore, Furio (8) has led from the start and through the opening half mile in all three races, with his only career win coming when leading from start to finish and earning a 91-speed figure. With a jockey change to Luis Saez and an outside post which demands he be sent for the lead from the start, he could run even faster in the early stages then he did when leading early and finishing second last month over the track, with 107 and 97 early pace figures to back that up.

Win contenders:

Considering Instant Replay (9) took advantage of the fast pace set by Furio in that race last month at Fair Grounds, going five paths wide on the turn and drawing off to win by five lengths with gas left in the tank, Instant Replay is very likely to get the same set up, or even better, for his late kick in the Louisiana Derby. Instant Replay was returning from a two-month layoff that day and should improve physically in his second start of the year, so his 100 Equibase figure (which is tied with Caldera for the best last figure in the field) should be improved upon. Jockey Florent Geroux has been the only pilot Instant Replay has had in six starts including both wins, and as the colt’s middle pace and final figure combination (85 then 100) is strong evidence of his ability to close strongly as the pacesetters tire, Instant Replay appears to be the one to beat in this race.

Caldera (5) earned the same 100 figure in his most recent race as Instant Replay did. That effort and figure came when Caldera finished second, beaten a nose, in the Sunland Derby five weeks ago. That was his second race since adding blinkers, and in the first of the pair Caldera drew away to win by the same five length margin as Instant Replay did in his most recent race. In the Sunland Derby, Caldera rallied from fifth after a half mile, to second on the turn, then made the lead by a head with an eighth of a mile to run, but the more experienced Getaway Car fought back to prevail by inches. With that effort Caldera continued a pattern of improvement started in his first two-turn race in December, from a 74 figure, to 93, then to 100. With continued improvement Caldera should be a strong factor down to the wire in this race.

Chunk of Gold (2) won his debut sprinting in December with an 89 figure then when stretched out to a mile and entered in a stakes race on January 16, he ran about the same, earning an 88 figure. Shipping from trainer Ethan West’s base in Kentucky to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes last month, Chunk of Gold ran into a buzzsaw in the form of Magnitude, who won by nearly 10 lengths. Magnitude is off the Derby trail with an injury, and although Chunk of Gold was no match for the winner, he ran an exceptionally good race as he rallied from eighth to beat Built by a head at the wire. I consider this the “race within the race” because it is as if there was a secondary race going on because the winner was so far in front. Chunk of Gold is out of the mare Play for Gold, who produced 2024 Martha Washington Stakes winner Band of Gold, so there is little doubt this colt has some quality and may have a say in the outcome of this year’s Louisiana Derby, perhaps at high odds.

Bets:

Win Bets:

Instant Replay (9) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Caldera (6) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Chunk of Gold (2) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Box Instant Replay (9) and Caldera (5).

Box Instant Replay (9), Caldera (5) and Chunk of Gold (2).