Race 10 at Oaklawn | Saturday, March 8 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Azeri Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward | One Mile and One Sixteenth

Analysis and top contenders:

Don’t get me wrong – I am a huge fan of Thorpedo Anna (1), the 2024 Horse of the Year and the embodiment of a Thoroughbred racehorse. I am so pleased she is continuing to race at the age of four and there is little doubt if she returns from four months off and runs as she did in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff when last seen on November 2, she can win. That being said, she is returning from four months off, and even though she won the Fantasy Stakes here at Oaklawn at the end of March last year and following four months off, this is the beginning of her four year old campaign and there may not be the huge incentive for her to be 100% fit and ready to win as there was last year when the Kentucky Oaks was just five weeks from the Fantasy. Just the same, she gets the rail and has tremendous tactical speed, so could easily be on the lead, or just off the pace early, and she is the most probable to win on paper. On the other hand, she opens as the 2 to 5 favorite and will likely be even lower odds near post time.

The horse with a shot to win and post the upset, or at least complete the exacta, is Jody’s Pride (3), who also is four years old BUT who has had a start this year. That race was the Inside Information Stakes at seven furlongs on January 25, her first start following nearly three months off. She stalked the pacesetter from fourth for the opening half mile then made the lead, before battling gamely neck and neck to the wire, beaten a neck and a nose in the photo. That effort earned her a 103 Equibase Speed Figure, nowhere near the 111 figures Thorpedo Anna earned winning the Breeders’ Cup Distaff or when beaten a nose by Fierceness in the Travers Stakes. However, that figure is HIGHER than the 102 Thorpedo Anna earned in her comeback race last year in the Fantasy, or when winning the Cotillion after the Travers. What’s more, the ONLY time Jody’s Pride stretched out from a sprint to a route previously, as she’s doing in this race, was when she missed by a neck in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She improved markedly from the sprint prior to that, and she should absolutely improve markedly stretching out and making her second start off a layoff today.

Bets:

Win Bets: Jody’s Pride (3) to win at 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Jody’s Pride (3) and Thorpedo Anna (1).

Race 9 at Santa Anita | Saturday, March 8 | Post Time 7:15 PM Eastern

San Simeon Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | Four Year Olds and Upward | Six and One Half Furlongs on Turf

Analysis:

Anarchist (6) comes under the radar a bit, opening at six to one odds, and with a 3-7-1 overall record in 16 races those odds are likely to stay at that level. Of those 16 races, ONLY ONE previously was on turf, and that was in the 2023 San Simeon, where Anarchist rallied for second at 11 to 1 odds. Since then, the horse has won or placed in five of nine races, including winning the higher-level Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes on dirt in the summer of 2023. His 2024 campaign wasn’t nearly as good as 2023, as he finished sixth, fifth and third, and his effort in his 2025 comeback three weeks ago appears poor on paper where he ran fifth and last around the track in the Palos Verdes Stakes on dirt. However, trainer Doug O’Neill is no fool and the reason he’s entered Anarchist in this race as the last was just a prep after six months off, and he knows the horse will like the turf. The jockey change to Vasquez is telling as well, as Vasquez rode Anarchist to two close seconds in graded stakes as well as the win in the Pat O’Brien. Coming into the race, Anarchist put in a spectacular five-furlong workout (58.6) which was the best of 68 on the day, and in a pretty wide open race he can post the mild upset as he’s as good as any of the main contenders which all open at lower odds.

Mucho Del Oro (8) opens as the 9 to 5 favorite, having won the similar Daytona Stakes last May as well as last year’s San Simeon. He was off for eight months after that and finished sixth of 12 in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes last month. He’s also trained by O’Neill, and he’s reunited with Juan Hernandez, up for victory in this race last year. Mucho Del Oro can blast to the front from the start where he likes to be and could be tough to catch, with stablemate Anarchist having a closing style, so they could easily complete the exacta.

Sorrento Sky (3) has won three of his last four races and finished second in the other. That was the Stormy Liberal Stakes at the shorter distance of five furlongs. He won his last try at this six and one-half furlong trip just before that, and he won his most recent start three weeks ago at five furlongs on grass so he could run even better second off the layoff.

For second on some exacta tickets and for third on trifecta tickets we can include Air Force Red (4) and Lovesick Blues (7). Air Force Red closed well for second in the Eddie D Stakes last September although he did not run as well in December when seventh in the Joe Hernandez Stakes. Lovesick Blues finished second in two straight races at this trip last March and April and returns fresh from a seven-month layoff, also possessing a closing style to get into the money in the late stages.

Bets:

Win: Anarchist (6) should be considered for a win bet at 5 to 2 odds or more.

Mucho Del Oro (8) and Sorrento Sky (3) also have fair odds of 5 to 2, but considering they start at odds of 9 to 5 and 5 to 2 respectively, they don’t offer the same return as a win bet on Anarchist.

Exactas:

Box Anarchist (6) and Mucho Del Oro (8).

Box Anarchist (6) and Sorrento Sky (3).

Anarchist (6), Mucho Del Oro (8) and Sorrento Sky (3) over Anarchist (6), Air Force Red (4) and Lovesick Blues (7). (We will leave out the combinations including the two favorites Mucho Del Oro and Sorrento Sky)