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Keeneland Select

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 7

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1    $40,000 CLAIMING
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-16A La CarteL Saez
PLACE12-18Fan the FireG Corrales
SHOW7-24Captain JackY Navas
WILD CARD3-15DebateJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 110-11Master of ArmsF Prat
ALTERNATE 28-13Pennys ProspectA Achard
    
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-11LinzerJ Rosario
PLACE9-213BergenF Prat
SHOW9-23Know Who You AreA Achard
WILD CARD10-16Gallant MischiefT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 110-115HigginsvilleF Arrieta
ALTERNATE 28-14PromissioJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 1-13 BOX, 13-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/13 BOX, 3/6/13 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #7 INSENSITIVE
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-27InsensitiveF Arrieta
PLACE9-22Devil Blue DressL Saez
SHOW3-14Take Time to DreamJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD6-15IciclesJ Gilligan
 
ALTERNATE 14-16Three PolksR Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 28-11Crushed IceJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $120,000 ALLOWANCE
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #5 SAFFRON MOON
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-25Saffron MoonF Prat
PLACE7-21WillakiaT Gaffalione
SHOW4-113Im So SorryL Saez
WILD CARD6-16Quality StarJ Talamo
 
ALTERNATE 112-110Beechnut TrophyJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 26-114Morgs WorldT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/13 BOX, 1/6/13 BOX
    
 
 RACE #5    $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #2 BAXLEY
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-22BaxleyG Corrales
PLACE2-13AlderT Gaffalione
SHOW8-19HaulL Saez
WILD CARD6-11Normandy HeroA Achard
 
ALTERNATE 13-14Valentine CandyR Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 210-17StormquistB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #6    $350,000 STAKES
 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $350,000 WOODFORD STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-28Our ShotT Gaffalione
PLACE12-19KaufymakerL Saez
SHOW4-111Beer Can ManF Prat
WILD CARD3-12Live In The DreamS Kirrane
 
ALTERNATE 16-11Bad Beat BrianC A Emigh
ALTERNATE 212-17CoppolaM Garcia
    
* EXACTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX
 
COMMENTS: OUR SHOT is a fan of the distance with three wins along with a second and third is a half dozen tries. KAUFYMAKER tends to run well off the bench with three wins in the last four times. BEER CAN MAN is another that fancies the distance with six wins in 10 races and just one in six at any other length. LIVE IN THE DREAM makes his US debut after facing tough group rated races in England.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $350,000 STAKES
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $350,000 TBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-21Wicked HaloT Gaffalione
PLACE2-16YuugiriF Prat
SHOW7-24Static FireC A Torres
WILD CARD8-12Fire On TimeM Garcia
 
ALTERNATE 18-15Happy SoulJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 29-23Last LeafL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 1,2,4,6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6/1.2,4,6/1,2,4,5,6
 
COMMENTS: WICKED HALO is a consistent top end performer with three wins and three seconds in seven starts at the distance. YUUGIRI loves the distance with five wins in six races. STATIC FIRE does her best when she challenges for the lead and should be no worse than second early. FIRE ON TIME ran better race internals in her last and will likely up her game in the second start after a layoff.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $750,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750,000 FIRST LADY STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-53In ItalianJ Rosario
PLACE10-11Gina RomanticaT Gaffalione
SHOW15-15Gams MissionA Beschizza
WILD CARD3-12WhitebeamF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 110-18Evvie JetsJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 26-14JumblyJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 1,2,3,5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/1,2,4,5,8/1,2,5
 
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN is coming off the bench after some rest. She has four wins and a second in the last five first up runs. GINA ROMANTICA won her lone race at Keeneland with one of her best performances and would be a top contender on a wet dirt track too. GAMS MISSIONs last race might have been a win if the jockey did not drop the crop. WHITEBEAM could be the best horse in the race if she is ready coming off a two month rest.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $600,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:14 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $600,000 BREEDERS FUTURITY GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-59LockedJ L Ortiz
PLACE8-11The Wine StewardL Saez
SHOW3-13Awesome RoadF Prat
WILD CARD7-22TimberlakeF Geroux
 
ALTERNATE 120-15West SaratogaG Corrales
ALTERNATE 215-16Generous TipperB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 9/1,2,3,5
* TRIFECTA: 9/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5,6
 
COMMENTS: LOCKED looks like he has a legit chance to be a serious player for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. THE WINE STEWARD is undefeated in three and should improve in the second start off the sidelines. AWESOME ROAD ran a robust race with very little falloff in his debut and could have more endurance today. TIMBERLAKE has been the betting favorite in all three starts and won the only race when he did not experience trouble. A clean trip is all he needs.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M TURF MILE STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-25Up to the MarkJ L Ortiz
PLACE2-11Master of The SeasJ Doyle
SHOW6-19AnnapolisF Prat
WILD CARD8-12IndestructibleR Santana Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 15-14Set PieceF Geroux
ALTERNATE 230-16English BeeJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,9/1,2,3,5,9/1,3,9
 
COMMENTS: UP TO THE MARK should be right off the pace at the jump and can make amazing mid moves that propel him to the finish line with a lot of momentum. MASTER OF THE SEAS trainer Charles Appleby wins graded stakes races at an amazing 43 percent. ANNAPOLIS has won more than 1 million dollars at the distance. INDESTRUCTIBLE ran in seven consecutive group rated races in Europe and makes his US debut today.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-11NashF Prat
PLACE9-24RapoportJ L Ortiz
SHOW4-17BoothR Santana Jr.
WILD CARD4-114AgooJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 16-15MiyagiT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 28-13HammersteinC A Torres
    
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/14 BOX