By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [NY, Clm 10000, 6F] – (1) Risk Profile (A) was shut off at the break of a $20,000 claimer last time, was taken up, rallied three wide, and was claimed by Linda Rice who drops him right down with a big chance to win. (7) Turnsandconditions won a $25,000 N3L condition in April at Aqueduct and was claimed. After two tries in starter allowances he moves to the lowest level available at Saratoga. (4) Bourbon’s Hope has been off since May when he won his N2L and N3L conditions also for Rice. (3) Zertz was second last month for a $12,500 tag.

4^th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (10) Berning Honor (A) returned to the turf in the spring and ran second in a maiden special weight. Last time she got shuffled far back at the start and basically lost all chance. (8) Jayla will make her first start for Jena Antonucci and gets to race against NY-breds for the first time after spending the winter at Fair Grounds. (3) Lem Me Drink finished second, third, and fourth since moving to maiden claimers and to the turf. (6) Sperss returns from a June layoff and drops back to this level again and gets Luis Saez in the saddle.

7^th race [Saratoga Oaks (G3), 1 3/16 mi TURF] – (7) Papilio (B) raced exclusively in graded stakes since her American debut in May and won the Appalachian (G1) at Keeneland and last month was third in the Belmont Oaks (G1). (10) Aspen Grove won that Belmont Oaks in her first start in the USA when she rallied from last in a nine horse field. (9) Selenaia won her last three starts having only run four times. In June she travelled to California and won the Honeymoon (G3) at Santa Anita. (4) Xigera won both of her 2023 starts in an allowance at Churchill Downs and then the Tepin which was run at Ellis Park.

9^th race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 7F] – (7) Timely Conquest (A) was a rare debut winner for Mark Hennig when she broke a bit slowly, rallied, and drew off to win by more than two lengths. (6) Chasing Daylight was a first-out winner at Belmont in June and then raced in open company claimers in her last two starts. (3) Big Bean Christine has been off since March when she won a starter allowance at Aqueduct by a neck. (8) Big Hazel had a big maiden victory going a mile at Belmont and then had less luck going nine furlongs.

Best bets: Berning Honor (4^th); Timely Conquest (9^th). Best value: Risk Profile (3^rd); Papilio (7^th).