Saratoga Hot List - August 1

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, August 1, 2020 at Saratoga
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                          B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd 
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race – (5) K. K. Ichikawa (B) made a very good impression while running third in his debut race in a NY-bred $40,000 maiden claimer on the turf. He gets Lasix for the first-time for trainer Michelle Niven who rarely wins with debut runners and stays in a similar conditioned maiden contest. (9) Regal Speaker debuted at Delaware Park in a maiden special weight and ran fourth in a full field. Now he gets blinkers on, Lasix for the first time, and drops into a claimer against state-breds. (1) Allied Invasion is a must use horse based only on the stats of trainer Christophe Clement who scores at 31% with debut maiden claimers. He and jockey Joel Rosario combine to win 34% of the time. (4) No Salt gets blinkers on after a disasterous 2020 debut where he got pulled up after a starting gate problem. This Bill Mott runner was well bet in both starts, but the odds should be better now even with a drop from maiden special weights.

4^th race – (3) Dreams of Tomorrow missed the top spot by a neck in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park in June for the Phipps Stable and Shug McGaughey. He beat a return winner in that field and gets first-time Lasix. (5) Ima Pharoah also gets blinkers on after a series of four second-place finishes for Todd Pletcher. The last was on turf but he’s back on the dirt here. (9) Obsessed make his 2020 debut for Pletcher after a no-show first race last year as the favorite. Clearly, something must have gone wrong on that day. (2) Searing Chase was a $700,000 yearling purchase who made his first start at Keeneland last month on a wet track in which he got passed by several horses after being in contention at the top of the stretch.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5^thrace – (3) Midnight Bisou was the winner of the Ogden Phipps (G1) last year in an epic battle against Elate. She faces a quality field of six in which every horse ran first or second in their most recent race. Clearly, Midnight Bisou will be a heavy favorite and a very likely winner. (6) Point of Honor has several seconds in Grade 1 company including two last summer at Saratoga. (4) Vexatious got a career best speed figure in her second in the Ruffian (G2) against Monomoy Girl. (2) Motion Emotion was second behind Midnight Bisou in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs.

10^th race – (6) No Parole was just way too fast for the Woody Stephens (G1) field when he got loose on the lead. He’s the winner of five of six career starts but he has not scared any horses away with this field of 11. Left alone on the lead again will make him hard to beat but you would think that he will face challenges out front this time. (4) Echo Town was second in the Woody Stephens last time while racing from off the pace. He is a past front end winner. (3) Sonneman flashed talent in the past and was moved to the barn of Steve Asmussen and then caught the wrong end of the pace in the two horse field in the Easy Goer. In this large field and at attractive odds, he may get the right set-up to use his late closing move. (5) Mischevious Alex was up against the pace scenario in the Woody Stephens and will have a better opportunity to use a stalking move to his advantage. 

Best bets: Midnight Bisou (5^th); No Parole (10^th).  Best value:  K. K. Ichikawa (3^rd); Dreams of Tomorrow (4^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special Pick 3 is on races 9-11 including the Whitney (G1), the Jerkens (G1), and the Bowling Green (G2):  3, 5 with 3, 5, 6 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 7 = $30