Saratoga Hot List - July 16

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, July 16, 2020 at Saratoga
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                              B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd 
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race – (3) Kazmania (C) missed by a neck in his 2020 debut when he rallied late after getting bet down from 16-1 to 10-1 and returns in a similar NY-bred allowance.  (4) Big Engine (C) moved up to a second level NY-bred allowance race after winning the first-level race last time. The Linda Rice trainee was bet down from 6-1 to 3-1, stalked the pace, and rallied between horses to get the place spot. (5) Dark Money was the winner of an open company allowance last time with a top speed figure after a four-month layoff and now returns to face state-breds for Rudy Rodriguez. (8) The Caretaker is now in for the required $40,000 tag after winning at this same OC40/NW2 level in his last race which came after a layoff from February when trainer Tom Morley took him for that same amount. He has two past wins at Saratoga.

7^th race – (6) Ava K’s Girl (B) made her debut after nine-months off in a similar first-level allowance race going long on the turf for NY-breds and after racing very wide ran late to get fourth. Trainer Michelle Nevin is an excellent ‘second off the layoff’ trainer. (9) Summer At the Spa was a late running second in her 2020 debut while also racing very wide which is a big disadvantage in those distance Belmont Park turf races. (8) Pandamom broke her maiden in her first start of the year for Christophe Clement while getting Lasix for the first time. (2) Noble Jewel won her 2020 debut against open company in a N2L high-level claimer and now moves back to face state-breds while stretching out in distance. 

9^th race – (2) Country Grammer (C) exited the Fountain of Youth (G2) to run third in a strong Belmont allowance behind two good 3-year-olds and now will try the Peter Pan (G3) after getting bet down from 5-1 to 3-1. (5) Candy Tycoon raced behind Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby (G1) and then was second in an Oaklawn Park allowance behind Rushie who just finished third in the Blue Grass (G2). (6) Mystic Guide was second in that allowance race mentioned with the Hot List horse and now makes his second start of the year for Michael Stidham. He owns the top speed figure in this field. (3) Modernist exits the Belmont Stakes (G1) for the red-hot Bill Mott barn. He had two very good races at the Fair Grounds on the original Kentucky Derby trail.

10^th race – (6) Alley to Calvary made her 2020 debut in a similar N2L condition but cuts back to a turf sprint in here after taking late action from 15-1 to 10-1. (8) Summer Fortune drops out of an Oaklawn allowance where she set the pace. Last year as a 2-year-old she was a debut winner for Jeremiah Englehart and she now moves to the turf. (1) Secure Connection cuts back in distance and drops out of allowances for this N2L condition for Shug McGaughey who had a great Belmont meeting. (2) Doll ran a big race in her first start for Brad Cox in a similar turf sprint and N2L condition.

Best bets:  Kazmania (5^th); Country Grammer (9^th). Best value:  Ava K’s Girl (7^th); Alley to Calvary (10^th).