Saratoga Hot List - July 23

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, July 23, 2020 at Saratoga
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                              B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race – (4) Ahead of Plan makes his 2020 debut for Chad Brown as a new gelding. He ran three times before this start including one try in a turf sprint at Saratoga but now, he is back on the dirt where he twice ran second. (2) O’ Trouble finished second last year in his only start as 2-year-old and came back to set the pace in his 2020 debut last month. He cuts back in distance from seven to six furlongs and that should be beneficial. (8) Anzio Beach makes his career debut for Christophe Clement who has become an excellent trainer of first-timers, he actually already has a debut winner this meeting. This son of Uncle Mo sold for $250,000 as a yearling. (6) Irish Front had a promising debut last year for Todd Pletcher at Saratoga when fourth in a loaded field. He has been away since then.

6^th race – (7) Joyous Times just missed in two tries in first-level allowances at Tampa Bay Downs and then at Belmont Park. In Florida, she stalked and in New York she set the pace. She is back in at flat mile distance on the turf and will likely come with good odds due to her low-profile trainer. (8) Simplicity will make her American debut for Clement and, as is usually the case with European horses, she’ll get Lasix for the first time. The Clement barn is in excellent form right now. (6) Pure Wow will move back to the turf after running twice on the dirt this year when there was not grass racing in New York. Those were strong performances on the main track, but turf may be her best surface. (1) Balon Rose had a troubled trip in her 2020 debut at Churchill Downs. The $1.6 million yearling purchase will make her second start in this allowance condition for Chad Brown.

7^th race – (10) Bertranda (C) is a very consistent type who ran hit the board in her last six starts which came against NY-breds. She is back in the barn of Mertkan Kantamaci who always sends his horses to the track ready to run. Last start she was bet down from 4-1 to 2-1. (3) Fierce Lady (C) made her second start after a layoff and bobbled at the start as a filly who usually goes right to the lead. She moved from NY-bred stakes racing to an open first-level allowance which had a strong field and still she was bet down to be the 6-5 favorite from 3-1. She chased the leader, who won on the front end, in second and dropped a place in the stretch to finish third. After a break from February, she returns to the state-bred ranks where she won a stake at Saratoga last summer. (1) Big Q is a past stakes winner and ran second in her last two starts in stakes. She makes her first appearance in an allowance race and her third start of the year. (8) My Roxy Girl will move to NY-bred company after two starts against open company including a starter allowance win for Linda Rice whose barn already has four wins at Saratoga.

8^th race – (9) It’s a Wrap made his turf debut in a sprint at Belmont Park last month where he rallied boldly to miss the win by a neck but was subsequently DQ’d to third for bumping in the stretch. He returns in a similar maiden special weight. (4) French Reef was bet to be favorite in his debut last year for Chad Brown where he set the pace and faded. He has not been seen since then. (1) Modesto gets the rail in his debut for Wesley Ward who makes a living winning with first-timers in turf sprints. (3) Union Colonel has three seconds in a row for trainer Mark Casse. The last two came at Gulfstream Park in the winter, so he has had a freshening.

Best bets:  Ahead of Plan (5^th); It’s a Wrap (8^th). Best value:  Joyous Times (6^th); Bertranda (7^th).