Saratoga Hotlist - August 14

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, August 14, 2021 at Saratoga – Day 23
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race [Md Sp Wt 100000, 1 3/16 mi TURF] – (3) Palamos (C) made a marked improvement in her second start of the year for Graham Motion when she finished third and was bet down from 6-1 to 3-1. (8) Empress Theodora (A) was erratic down the stretch in her debut for Tom Albertrani who rarely wins with first-timers. (2) Investment Income missed the win by a nose at Monmouth Park for Chad Brown. She was a $300,000 purchase as a weanling. (5) Baby Blythe will make her second start of the year for Shug McGaughey. Last year in her debut, she was a length off the win spot.

8^th race [Alw 103000 N1X, 7F] – (5) Ducale got his maiden score for Brad Cox at Saratoga in his second start going today’s distance after a second in his debut at Churchill Downs. That win got a big speed figure. (4) Speaker’s Corner was an impressive maiden winner as a 2-year-old for Bill Mott and Godolphin and now he returns with Lasix for the first time in this deep field. The (1) Mahaamel/(1A) Ashiham entry for Todd Pletcher and Shadwell are both contenders. (3) Ten for Ten was rank in his 2021 return in a race where the first two finishers battled down the stretch and were well clear of the others.

9^th race [Saratoga Special (G2) 200000, 6 ½ F] – (9) Dance Code (A) stumbled badly at the start of the Sanford (G3) and rallied from far back to finish third behind the highly regarded Wit. (5) Midnight Worker (C) was bet down from 15-1 to 10-1 and won at first asking for Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable. (7) Double Thunder is unbeaten in two starts for Pletcher which includes his debut at Monmouth Park and then the Bashford Manor (G3) at Churchill. (8) Doctor Jeff won his maiden geared down in his first start for Rudy Rodriguez.

10^th race [Fourstardave (G1) 500000, 1 mi TURF] – (1) Raging Bull is back to his top form with two excellent efforts this year. His first start of 2021 was a two-length win at Keeneland in the Makers Mark Mile (G1) that earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. In the Poker (G3) he was a head behind in a 103 BSF race. Chad Brown will try and win the Fourstardave for the first time in his career. (5) Set Piece, like so many others, has found his best form for trainer Brad Cox. He won his last three starts which includes the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill going 1 1/16 miles. His last two wins have earned 100 BSFs. This is the hardest field that Set Piece has yet to face. (8) Blowout is one of three older mares that are taking on the boys in the Fourstardave. She uses her speed to win from the front including the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) under the Twin Spires in her last start. She is from the same connections as Raging Bull and she might be in the race to make sure that there is a fast pace for him. Brown has used this strategy in big races before. Speed is dangerous on the turf and if she gets loose on the lead, she could be a threat to win. (7) Field Pass won a Grade 3 for Mike Maker in his last start and these days at Saratoga, Maker is a threat with all of his horses.

Best bets:  Ducale (8^th); Raging Bull (10^th). Best value:  Palamos (4^th); Dance Code (9^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 on races 8 - 10  à 1/1A, 3, 4, 5 with 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 1 = $24.