Saratoga Hotlist - August 29

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Saturday, August 29, 2020 at Saratoga
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                       B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

8^th race – (7) Win Win Win (A) had a troubled trip in his second start of the year where he moved back to the main track at Belmont Park. He was pinched back at the start of the one turn mile and then was hemmed in down the stretch finishing second to the talented Complexity. Trainer Michael Trombetta was encouraged enough by that performance to try this Grade 1 Forego going seven furlongs. (6) Complexity (B) has always been very well regarded since winning the Champagne as a juvenile. His 2020 debut was a promising allowance win against the top choice, but the Chad Brown runner will have to step up to handle this quality field. (10) Mind Control has done his best running at this distance and at Saratoga. He also catches a field without a lot of early pace so that his tactical speed should be a big plus. (4) Funny Guy loves Saratoga and is in the best form of his career. Joel Rosario retains the mount and could put this NY-bred into contention in the race early.

9^th race – (2) Aquaphobia broke through with a Grade 1 victory in the United Nations at Monmouth Park for trainer Michael Maker. (8) Sadler’s Joy was part of a rough stretch run when he crossed the finish line in first but was disqualified and placed fourth. That was his first win since November. (6) Cross Border was the beneficiary of the disqualification in the Bowling Green when he finished just behind Sadler’s Joy but was then placed first after getting bumped and steadied. Clearly, those two are back for a contentious rematch in the Sword Dancer (G1). (7) Pedro Cara is the new face amongst this group who will make his second start in the America after winning a Group 2 in the Middle East. He did run second in the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont in September for Graham Motion missing the win in a head bob.

10^th race – (7) O’Gotten Girl (B) had a very good debut at Saratoga when she ran third in a turf sprint and now trainer Gary Gullo moves the 2-year-old filly to the main track. (3) Jouster has the look of a debut Todd Pletcher juvenile that will be ready to run at first asking after a fast gate work last week. (9) Rookery missed by a neck in a blanket finish for trainer Wayne Catalano in her debut at the Spa. The experienced horses have a distinct edge in races like this. (5) Zainalarab was a $1 million purchase by Shadwell at the Keeneland yearling sale. She will make her first start for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz.

11^th race – (7) Midnight Surprise (A) was an impressive debut winner for Pletcher. This NY-bred was a home bred who was geared down nearing the finish line. The second-place finisher already came back to break her maiden. (6) Flashpackinbarbie (C) was bet down from 5-1 to 3-1 after moving from an open claiming victory in her first start in 2020 to a state-bred allowance where she ran second. She’s back in a similar spot here. (3) Eloquent Speaker set the pace going nine furlongs in an allowance and now cuts back to a sprint where she did break her maiden. Luis Saez gets on board and he will certainly make use of her speed. (1) Kinky Sox returned to NY-bred company at Saratoga after competing and winning in claimers.

Best bets: O’Gotten Girl (10^th); Midnight Surprise (11^th).  Best value:  Win Win Win (8^th); Aquaphobia (9^th).

@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special Pick 3 is on races 9-11 and includes the Sword Dancer (G1):  2, 5, 6, 7, 8 with 3, 7 with 3, 6, 7 = $30.