Saratoga Hotlist - July 15

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, July 15, 2021 at Saratoga – Day 1
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Clm 12500, 1 1/8 mi] – (6) Flowers for Lisa was claimed from 3 out of her last 4 races, most recently for $20,000 when Bruce Levine took her back. She won for him three races ago for a $12,500 tag going today’s distance at Aqueduct. A win at this level again will turn a nice profit for Levine if she is again claimed away. (4) Wagon Boss was claimed for $16,000 last month at Churchill Downs from a race that she won. (9) Hammerin Aamer is a past winner at this level. She was claimed from her last two starts including for $16,000 a month ago. (5) Charlie’sarchangel was also claimed from her two most recent starts for $25,000 then $16,000 at Belmont Park. Irad Ortiz gets on board looking to start the meeting with a victory.

2^nd race [Md Sp Wt 100k, 5 ½ F] – (9) Speedometer was third in her debut for Steve Asmussen who wins a lot of 2-year-old races at Saratoga. This a home-bred daughter of Tapit for Winchell Thoroughbreds. (4) Microbiome has a pair of bullet works at Saratoga and at Churchill for Tom Amoss, who is a good trainer of young horses. Her dam was a graded stakes winner of $248,000. (6) Seduce was third in her debut for Graham Motion after pressing a fast early pace at Delaware Park. (8) Frosted Oats will make her debut for Bill Mott and the Myracehorse.com partners after selling for $250,000 as a yearling.

3^rd race [Alw 103000 N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (9) St. Joe Louis was a more than three-length maiden winner for the team of Chad Brown and owner Peter Brant at Belmont in May defeating a horse that was a return winner.  (6) Point Me By was another debut turf winner. This one came at Churchill for trainer Eddie Kenneally. (12) Alley Oop Johnny will have to overcome that outside post but looked good running second in his 2021 debut after setting the pace. He should be able to use his speed to improve his position. (3) Smile Bryan’s form is excellent this year while racing only on the turf in open claiming races with a first, second, and a third. His speed figures fit right in with this group.

4^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Hohohoho (C) has plenty of early speed which will make her dangerous in this field. Last race at this level, she set the pace and finished third while getting bet from 7-1 to 5-1. (9) Kemba just missed the win by a neck in a similar spot in his first start of the year. Last year she broke her maiden at Saratoga for a $75,000 tag. (10) Big Bad Diva won a maiden special weight and then was second in a starter allowance in Florida for Saffie Joseph and now comes back from a March layoff. (3) Evidence Based broke her maiden for a $50,000 tag last time for Chad Brown and was claimed by Wayne Potts.

5^th race [Md Sp Wt 100k, 5 ½ F] – (3) Lady Scarlet has the experience edge with a second in her debut last month at Churchill in a race that had fast early fractions that she pressed. (7) Echo Zulu will make her debut for Steve Asmussen. The $300,000 yearling purchase is by Gun Runner who already has seven 2-year-old winners. (6) Solasta is by Goldencents and is a half-sister to Mia Mischief who has earned $1.2 million on the track. She has two bullet works at the Spa. (5) Outfoxed is the first foal from a mare that earned $234,000 racing including a second in a stakes race as a 2-year-old. She will debut for Bill Mott whose numbers with first-timers are improving.

6^th race [Clm 35000 N3L, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (2) Alba’s Star returned from a three-month layoff to set the pace and finish third at this level at Belmont behind a horse that came back to win. (11) Jazzy Lady was claimed out of a N2L victory at Churchill by Ray Handal at the end of May. (5) Kitten by the Sea has plenty of back class in allowance and starter allowance races. She will make her 2021 debut for Todd Pletcher. (8) Choose Happiness has made a form improvement since getting back on the turf at Belmont for the Noda Brothers.

7^th race [Alw 103000 N1X, 1 1/8 mi] – [The Shadwell/Todd Pletcher entry are both win contenders (1) Arham has three speed figures in the 90s and in his most recent start in June at Belmont he was second. Blinkers go on. (1A) Ajaaweed drew the far outside post and would get some welcome class relief after stakes racing in his last two starts.] (2) Southern District broke his maiden last start in Kentucky in his first start on the dirt for Chad Brown against a horse that came back to win his next start. (4) Dack Janiel’s was second last race and is graded stakes placed last year. He has three wins while many in this field have only a maiden score. (8) Dust Devil was third in his last two races against good fields and now makes his first start for Bill Mott.

8^th race [Quick Call (G3), 5 ½ F TURF] – (2) Second of July (A) won the first two races of his career as a 2-year-old including the Futurity (G3) at Belmont. He misfired in the Breeders’ Cup and then in his 2021 debut he was rank and dragged his rider to the front. (3) Golden Pal will make his first start of the year after a dominant victory in the BC Juvenile Sprint (G1) for Wesley Ward. Last year, he was second in the Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot. (6) Fauci was second behind Golden Pal last year and should get a good set-up for his closing style. (8) Rebel Posse made a significant improvement since switching to the turf. His last win at Lone Star earned a big speed figure.

9^th race [Schuylerville (G3), 6F] – (4) Velvet Sister (A) will step up to this Grade 3 after an almost 10-length win in her debut at Belmont in June. The Stonestreet Stables runner was a $500,000 purchase as a 2-year-old. (7) Happy Soul made her debut against the boys, then Ward moved her to face fillies and she broke her maiden and won the Astoria each by more than 11-lengths. (2) Mainstay is a half-sister to recent champion and millionaire 2-year-old filly Vequist and also comes from the barn of trainer Butch Reid. She was an open-length winner of her debut at Monmouth. (1) Pretty Birdie drew away to win her debut for Norm Casse by more than three-lengths. She is a home-bred for the Marylou Whitney Stables.

10^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt 85k, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (12) Ruse had the lead in the stretch and finished second in his return to the grass in a very fast time at Belmont following a five-month layoff. He gets Lasix for the first-time. (8) Clever Fellow gets blinkers on after running second and then third while getting on the grass for the first time for Chad Brown. (1) Straight Skinny raced seven wide and still finished second in start number two while stretching out in distance. I like the rider change to Gaffalione. (11) Sandro the Great gets a trainer change to Tom Bush and makes his 2021 debut with blinkers off and as a new gelding.

Best bets:  St. Joe Louis (3^rd); Pletcher entry (7^th). Best value: Alba’s Star (6^th); Ruse (10^th).