Saratoga Hotlist - July 17

Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday July 17 | Post Time 6:16 PM Eastern

Diana Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Handicapping the weather, particularly at Saratoga, is like handicapping the races at Saratoga as there are multiple scenarios. Rain is forecast for Saturday afternoon but since the Diana Stakes is a Grade 1 it is highly unlikely it will come off the turf. However, it is likely the race will be run on good, or even soft, ground. That is definitely something to consider, particularly with six horses in the race bred in Europe. European horses often come to the U.S. to AVOID soft and heavy ground, but that doesn’t mean they won’t run well on it, particularly if they have done so overseas.

Even with that in mind, and many of the Europeans in top form, I am going to start the contender list with La Signare (1), because she opens at 15/1. This hard-trying mare was sent to post at 9 to 2 in the identical Grade 1 Gamely Stakes when last seen on May 31 at Santa Anita, and she ran a huge race when rallying strongly in the last eighth of a mile to miss by a half-length at the end, earning a career-best 114 Equibase figure as GOOD as horses opening at much lower odds in this race. Last year, La Signare won the Sand Springs Stakes in March before nearly posting a huge 21 to 1 upset in the Mint Julep Stakes. She hasn’t won in six races since then but has been running only in grade 2 or grade 2 company and against top turf horses Beau Recall, Rushing Fall, Juliet Foxtrot and Maxim Rate. With the ground saving rail for this race, if La Signare can just repeat that last effort she’s going to run a lot better than her double digit odds suggest she will.

Summer Romance (6) and Althiqa (8) finished second and first, respectively, in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes on Belmont Stakes day last month. That race was run at a mile but both have run well at this nine furlong trip, specifically when first and third in February in the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes in Dubai. In the Just a Game, Summer Romance set a fast pace and was extremely game down to the wire, so likely to be even more physically fit in her second U.S. start and second off a layoff, she could be tough to catch. On the other hand Althiqa closed like a shot from eighth with a quarter mile to run, running the last quarter in a sizzling 22.5 seconds.

The 112 and 113 figures these fillies earned in that race match up with the 114 La Signare earned in the Gamely and pretty much tower over the rest of the field, which makes the 3 to 1 starting odds on Harvey’s Lil Goil (5) and 5 to 2 starting odds on Lemista (7) a bit of a puzzle as neither appear to be as fast as either Summer Romance or Althiqa, who open at odds of 4 to 1 and 3 to 1, respectively, which of course makes for a great betting race. Of the two, Lemista can be used on some exacta tickets but based on a poor effort on yielding turf last month when fifth in the New York Stakes last month.

For some exacta tickets we’ll also use Pocket Square (2), who is trained by Chad Brown but who opens at 8 to 1 compared to his other starter, Lemista (7) at 5 to 2. Pocket Square won her U.S. debut in April with a strong rally from eighth then ran evenly in the Just a Game but she has a win on heavy turf in France and could really take to this surface if there is a good deal of rain.

Win bets: Start with La Signare (1) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, then consider Summer Romance (6) or Althiqa (8) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Because La Signare (1) opens at high odds, she’s a good candidate for the “exacta as a place bet” which will be ALL over La Signare (1).

Then also play Summer Romance (6) over Pocket Square (2), Lemista (7) and Althiqa (8) and the opposite, which is Pocket Square (2), Lemista (7) and Althiqa (8) over Summer Romance (6).

Trifectas:

La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6) and Althiqa (8) over La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6) and Althiqa (8) over La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6), Althiqa (8), Pocket Square (2) and Lemista (7).

La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6) and Althiqa (8) over La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6), Althiqa (8), Pocket Square (2) and Lemista (7) over La Signare (1), Summer Romance (6) and Althiqa (8)