Saratoga Hotlist - July 17

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, July 17, 2021 at Saratoga – Day 3
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race [NY, Alw 90000 N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (5) Catch That Party (A) was blocked in the stretch and closed strongly once he got clear to finish second in a claiming race against open company. (7) Grape Nuts Warrior won his debut for Chad Brown at Belmont Park in April and came right back to run third in a spot like this one. Blinkers go on. (8) Austrian returns from an April layoff with three recent speed figures which top this field. Trainer Gargan is dangerous off layoffs and when his barn is hot, he is often hard to beat. (4) The Golden Door will make his second start of the year for David Donk who wins with 25% like these. This horse ended last year in fine form.

8^th race [Alw 103000 N1X, 7F] – This race, that is of graded stakes quality, has a full field of 12 horses. (4) Striking Speed (C) changes barns and returns from a December layoff. Last year for Rudy Rodriguez, he had a 5: 1-1-1 record after Rudy claimed him from Linda Rice. Now he will run for Rob Atras with a win at Saratoga last year. (1) Beau Liam exploded in his May debut at Churchill Downs to win by more than seven-lengths for Steve Asmussen and Stonestreet. The race comment is that he “swamped foes and drew off”. (12) Mahaamel was defeated in his debut running second to First Captain who is now the winner of the Dwyer (G3). Mahaamel broke his maiden at Belmont impressively earning a 99 BSF. (10) Crowded Trade was prominent on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail with a second in the Gotham (G3) and a third in the Wood (G2). He has been off since running fifth in the Preakness (G1).

9^th race [The Sanford (G3), 6F] – (1) Wit (A) was an odds-on favorite in his debut for Todd Pletcher, so the word was out on this son of Practical Joke, who is off to a great start as a sire. Wit won that race by six-lengths after breaking a bit slowly. (2) Candy Landing was an impressive debut winner at Churchill Downs by more than four-lengths. (9) Headline Report was also a winner in his first start for Wesley Ward in April at Keeneland. (7) Ottoman Empire rallied from behind to win his first start at Churchill over a horse that came back to win his next start for Tom Amoss who is excellent with young horses and won on opening day with a 2-year-old.

10^th race [The Diana (G1), 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (7) Lemista (A) was second in her American debut for Chad Brown in the Beaugay (G3) rallying to get within a half-length of the winner. Last year in Europe, she was a Group 2 winner at the Curragh in Ireland going nine-furlongs, so she should appreciate the Diana distance. (6) Summer Romance set the pace in the Just A Game (G1) in her American debut for European trainer Charlie Appleby and finished second. In this race, she appears to be the lone speed and that makes her dangerous. At Meydan in Dubai, she won a Group 2 going the 1 1/8 mile distance. She is likely to be overlooked in the betting. (8) Althiqa is also trained by Appleby and rallied up the rail to win the Just A Game after an ideal trip. She finished behind Summer Romance in that race at Meydan. Althiqa has yet to win at the distance of the Diana. (5) Harvey’s Lil Goil was third by just a neck in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Turf (G1) last year. She won her 2021 debut in the Beaugay but then was a non-threatening fifth in the New York (G2). The yielding turf may have been hard to handle for a big filly like her. On her best she is a threat to win.

Best bets:  Wit (9^th); Lemista (10^th). Best value:  Catch That Party (4^th); Striking Speed (8^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 on races 8 - 10 ends with the Sanford (G3) and the Diana (G1) à 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12 with 1 with 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 = $30.