Saratoga Hotlist - July 30

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Friday, July 30, 2021 at Saratoga – Day 11
                By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [Clm 35000 N3L, 6 ½ F TURF] – (12) Tenure (B) got off to a slow start at Belmont Park back in May following a four-month layoff, then had to race very wide and still rallied for fourth. He is a past winner at Saratoga. (2) Convection won his first two races in Kentucky for Tom Amoss, who I must say does a great job on the NYRA broadcasts, and then tried an allowance. Amoss moves him to a winning spot as the trainer looks for his third win of the meeting. (4) Kasim was taken from an open claiming race at Churchill Downs for $50,000 by Danny Gargan. Gargan, who wins with 39% of his newly claimed horses, goes for his fourth win this summer at the Spa. (6) Ahead of Plan was second last time when Chad Brown dropped him into a similar condition downstate.

8^th race [Alw 103000 N1X, 1 3/8 mi TURF] – (2) Galawi (A) won his American debut for Graham Motion in a long-distance Belmont maiden special weight. His dam is half-sister of the great Goldikova. (6) Jarreau (C) was claimed for $40,000 from a second-place finish in a N2L race at Belmont by Mike Maker. Maker is great at stretching horses out as he looks for his sixth win of the meeting. In that race he was placed first after a DQ also having been bet down from 7-1 to 4-1. (8) Compliant was third, just a neck from the win, in his 2021 debut for Chad Brown. (10) Box N Score finished a head in front of the Brown horse.

9^th race [Curlin 120000, 1 1/8 mi] – (4) First Captain puts his unbeaten record on the line after winning the Dwyer (G3) with a comfortable rally from a stalking position. He was a $1.5 million purchase as a yearling. (7) Dynamic One should not be dismissed despite his 18^th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) which was the last time he was seen in a race. The son of Union Rags looks like one of those later developing Todd Pletcher runners. (3) Harvard won his last two starts including a front-end allowance score at Churchill for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. (1) Miles D is worth a look as one who could finish in the trifecta after his maiden score at Belmont for Chad Brown.

10^th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/16 TURF] – (6) Mill Stone Creek (B) steadied early as she returned to the grass and still rallied for third. Now the blinkers come off as she stretches out to go two-turns. (10) Highway Queen got claimed for $40,000 by Maker after a third-place finish at Belmont. See the comments about Maker off the claim in the race 8 comments. (1) Home for Christmas made her 2021 debut in a race that was meant for the grass and was run a sloppy track. She was third there for Christophe Clement who already has five wins at this meeting. (5) Lookin to Fly was third in her first start of the year for Joe Sharp in a turf sprint. Sharp often has success early at Saratoga.

Best bets:  Galawi (8^th); First Captain (9^th). Best value:  Tenure (3^rd); Mill Stone Creek (10^th).