Saratoga Hotlist - July 30

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, July 30, 2022 at Saratoga 
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/8 mi] – (9) Wolfe County is also entered in the Curlin Stakes on Friday and this starter allowance would certainly be a softer spot having just broken his maiden at Churchill Downs last month. (8) Endowed raced twice this year with a maiden win for a $50,000 tag and then a second in a starter allowance earlier in the month at Belmont for Christophe Clement. (5) Misbehaved broke his maiden for $50,000 in his most recent start for Todd Pletcher at Churchill (2) Cryo was claimed for $40,000 from a second-place finish earlier in the Saratoga meeting by Orlando Noda who has a strong record with new horses to his barn.

8^th race [Vanderbilt (G1), 6F] – (4) Jackie’s Warrior won all three of his starts this year in graded stakes and also won all four of his career starts at Saratoga. (2) Willy Boi also won his three starts in 2022 while racing in Florida. Regular rider Chantal Sutherland comes up from Florida as he faces the toughest challenge of his career. (3) Ny Traffic won his last two starts impressively since cutting back to six-furlong sprints. Irad will get back on board. (1) Kneedeepinsnow ships up from Kentucky and cuts back to today’s distance which should suit him well.

9^th race [Jim Dandy (G2), 1 1/8 mi] – (4) Early Voting won the Preakness (G1) and is only a neck short of being unbeaten in four career starts. He has a chance to control this race from the start depending on what (2) Epicenter does in the race. Early in his career, Epicenter showed plenty early speed but in his last three starts has run from farther and farther off the pace. It is likely that he will need to stay close to Early Voting and not allow him to get loose on the lead. (5) Zandon may be the third betting choice, which is attractive. He might get a good set-up for his closing style if the top two choices do battle each other in the early going. (3) Tawny Port will be the fourth choice in this Jim Dandy field. He was seventh in the Kentucky Derby with victories just before and after that big race in the Lexington (G3) and the Ohio Derby (G3). He is worth considering as a way to get a better payoff in the trifecta if one of the top three do not run their best.

10^th race [Alw 115000 N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (12) Capensis (A) was an impressive debut winner for Todd Pletcher who lived up to his $2 million purchase price. (5) Shawdyshawdyshawdy (A) had bad trips in his last three races and gets a rider change to veteran Castellano. (3) Orchestration will make his 2022 debut for Chad Brown. He was a maiden winner last year at Saratoga. 8) Ricochet was third in his first start of the year and then won a starter allowance at Belmont earlier in the month.

Best bets:  Jackie’s Warrior (8^th); Early Voting (9^th). Best value:  Wolfe County (3^rd); Capensis (10^th).

 Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $5 Pick 3 covers races 8 -10 and includes the Vanderbilt (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2) à 4 with 2, 4, 5 with 5, 12 = $30.