Saratoga Hotlist - July 31

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, July 31, 2021 at Saratoga – Day 13
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

6^th race [Md Sp Wt 100000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Ohtwoohthreefive (B) was fractious before his debut in a turf sprint at Belmont Park when he got off to a slow start and then rallied to finish second. Trainer George Weaver wins more often with second-time starters. (1) Sweeping Giant is a $350,000 Curlin progeny who has been training long distances on the turf for his debut for Todd Pletcher. (4) Royal Spirit has been training in company with Sweeping Giant also for Pletcher. This son of Into Mischief was a $450,000 purchase. (10) Doctor Davis will make his first career start for Bill Mott who wins with debut runners in these kind of long turf races.

7^th race [Alw 103000 N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (9) Pecatonica ran the two best races of her career in her two starts this year for the trainer Tom Bush. She was beaten by just a neck in her recent start in a similar spot. (8) Love and Thunder was second in her last two races for Chad Brown. The most recent was going a mile where she beat a horse that came back to win her next start. (2) Invincible Gal gets blinkers on and first-time Lasix as she drops out of a pair of stakes that includes a second in the Soaring Softly (G3). (6) Secret Time moves to the barn of Danny Gargan and gets blinkers on after running second in a stake in Florida during the winter.

8^th race [Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) 350000, 6F] – (5) Three Technique (C) was third in the Nerud (G2) when he was bet down from 12-1 to 7-1. (2) Mischevious Alex was up against it in the Met Mile (G1) and still finished third. The cutback to six furlongs is ideal. (9) Special Reserve has two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in a row from a pair of stakes victories. Trainer Mike Maker has brought live horses to Saratoga where he is the leading trainer after the first 10 days. (8) Montauk Traffic will be a very big price and should get an excellent set-up for his closing move.

9^th race [Jim Dandy (G2) 600000, 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Essential Quality has a tremendous class advantage over this field with 6 wins from 7 career starts that includes three Grade 1 victories, amongst them the Belmont Stakes. His powerful run in the Belmont over Hot Rod Charlie highlighted Essential Quality’s stamina, determination, and turn of foot. Horses have to prove themselves at Saratoga, but it has to be a strong indicator of success that trainer Brad Cox has opted to run in the Jim Dandy when that was not his original plan. (3) Weyburn was last seen running just a neck behind Mandaloun in the Pegasus at Monmouth Park. That effort was flattered when Mandaloun ran so well in the Haskell Stakes (G1). Weyburn’s fourth in the Wood Memorial (G2) points out some inconsistency. He is the only horse in the field that prefers to race as part of the early pace, so he is likely to be on the lead. (4) Keepmeinmind has raced exclusively in graded stakes races since his debut. His deep closing style has been a big part of why he has only 1 win from 9 starts but he has four other top three finishes. However, trainer Robertino Diodoro has made a rider change to Joel Rosario and nobody is better with late runners than Rosario. (2) Masqueparade burst on the 3-year-old scene with an allowance romp at Churchill Downs followed by a victory in the Ohio Derby (G3) as the favorite.

Best bets:  Ohtwoohthreefive 6^th); Essential Quality (9^th). Best value:  Pecatonica (7^th); Three Technique (8^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 on races 6 - 8 ends with the Vanderbilt (G1) à 1, 4, 7 with 2, 6, 8, 9 with 2, 5 = $24.