Friday April 25, 2025
Race 8 at Keeneland
Bewitch Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales – Grade 3

Contender(s) to win in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#5 Just Basking – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1
#3 Forever After All – minimum win betting odds 2 to 1
#9 Youknownothing – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1

Exacta: Box 3, 5, 9
Exacta: 5, 9 over 2, 7 and also (the opposite) 2, 7 over 5, 9
#2 is Immensitude and #7 is Eternal Silence and both are not strong win contenders, particularly at low odds, as NEITHER has ever run this mile and one-half distance. Nevertheless, because Just Basking and Youknownothing start at 12 to 1 odds, exactas above will likely pay better than place bets on either Just Basking or Youknownothing, and if they win and if Forever After All does not run second, we can also make extra profit.

Just Basking is a lightly raced four year old. She ran six times last year, winning twice, and she was a solid third behind top female dirt horses Power Squeeze and Candied in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes last August at one mile and one-quarter. She also won at one mile and one-quarter, nearly a year ago to the day, and all her two-turn races last year were on dirt. She took time off from August until March 18 to grow up and as a four year old she’s still not fully mature, which is the reason I think she can post the upset win here. Trying turf for the first time last month, Just Basking was no factor, checking in seventh of nine, but as the 5 to 2 favorite. I believe that was just a prep for this longer race given the time off. As a daughter of champion Arrogate, Just Basking should adore this 12 furlong trip, particularly as one of the few Arrogate foals to run this far, Linda’s Gift (also a female) won six of 16 of these types of races and more than $400K in her career. This could be exactly what Just Basking needs for her best effort, and she can post the upset in a field that’s not very strong.

Forever After All has won just three of 23 career races, including just one of 10 on grass, while finishing second 10 times overall and four times on turf. However, the reason she’s a contender is the is the ONLY horse proven at this marathon distance of 12 furlongs. Six months ago nearly to the day, Forever After All lost by a nose in the Dowager Stakes, the fall Equivalent of the Bewitch at Keeneland. She then finished second in a similar long stakes race in Florida then won in January before a fifth place effort on March 1. With four of her last five tries, all in longer races like this one, being “A” efforts, Forever After All is definitely a contender.

Youknownothing is a four year old like Just Basking. She won a the distance of one mile and three-eighths one race before last and she also ran poorly in the Very One Stake in Florida last month, finishing eighth in the same race Forever After All finished fifth in. However, she’s in the top barn of trainer Clement, gets a strong jockey in Geroux and if she returns to the form shown at around this distance in January may also have a say in the outcome at odds which are worth the risk for betting on her. 

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